The note, by senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon, said Flutter Brazil’s growth will be bolstered by the Flutter Edge technology stack, “which has proven to affect market share gains in new markets quickly,” Beynon added.
Brazil is expected to drive another 1% of the group’s international market share gains between 2026 and 2029. The business arm, which includes NSX Group, has a current estimated worth of approximately $1.3 billion (£1 billion/€1.2 billion) according to Macquarie estimates.
This, Beynon said, represents ~$12 of per share of value and $9.5 of valuation creation.
The analyst applauded Flutter for successfully managing risk in M&A and taking a top two position in the US through its FanDuel business. He estimates Flutter’s combined global market share sits at roughly 16%, including 35% in UK and Ireland, 33% in North America, 40% in Australia and 5% for international.
Globally, it is expected to reach a ~20% market share by 2030, thanks in part to its spate of recent acquisitions and the Flutter Edge stack.
At its 25 September Capital Markets Day, the operator reported its acquisition of the Brazil-facing NSX Group had helped it secure an 11% share of Brazil’s total online betting market, also including its Betfair brand.
It purchased a 56% stake in NSX in September for $350 million. The deal is expected to close by Q2 of 2025 and includes leading Brazilian betting brand Betnacional. The operator established its Flutter Brazil business once the NSX deal was confirmed.
Flutter confident in Brazil opportunity
During Flutter’s Q3 results on 13 November, its CFO Rob Coldrake said the company was confident with the progress it has made in Brazil.
“We’re excited to take advantage of what we think is a really exciting market with a lot of opportunity,” he said.
Brazil’s legal betting launch is imminent with a 1 January 2025 date set. Flutter was among the first to apply for a licence with the new betting regulator in the summer. But the sector has faced significant backlash in the country after a number of studies suggesting betting was seriously impacting consumer spending and welfare were released.
More M&A on the cards?
In his note Beynon also believes further M&A is on the cards for Flutter in LatAm. The group could also consider “more transformational M&A” in the US, he said, eyeing further opportunities for FanDuel to enter more retail gaming and lottery.
Flutter has been on something of an acquisition spree this year. In September, it informed the market it had committed to purchasing Playtech’s Italian B2C business Snaitech for €2.3bn. The addition of Snaitech and NSX Group should add roughly 2% to Flutter’s international market share.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/strategy/flutter-macquarie-brazil/
