We’re just days away from Super Bowl LIX with the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in New Orleans.
Sunday 9 February’s kickoff marks the eleventh time New Orleans has hosted the Super Bowl, becoming the most popular host city along with Miami. H2 expects a record amount of wagers will be riding on the game, the highest wagering on a single match in the US.
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Projected handle and gross yield
17% increase in wagers to generate $1.6 billion handle
H2 expects almost $1.6 billion to be wagered through onshore licensed sportsbooks. New York is likely to narrowly overtake Nevada as the state generating the most handle for the Super Bowl, generating a record high $181 million through Empire State licensed sportsbooks.
H2 estimates that $1.36bn was wagered through legal onshore sportsbooks for the 2024 Super Bowl, up from $1.10bn in the prior year. Our 2025 estimate suggests this strong growth will continue, implying a 17% increase in Super Bowl wagers this year.
This is predominantly driven by growth in existing states (those states that were live for Super Bowl 2024). These will account for around 75% of the year-on-year growth, with new states accounting for close to $57 million of handle.
The states
Florida joins $100 million club
H2 has forecast the expected handle in every state with legal sports wagering. Florida joins the states expected to generate over $100 million in Super Bowl handle, with New York and Nevada leading the way.
Hold rate
Bettors win big in 2024 season
This regular season has been historically good for bettors. A 72.4% favourite win rate is considerably above the previous five-year average of 66.0%.
The percentage of favourites covering the spread also beats the previous five-year average at 77.2%. This means bettors are approaching Super Bowl LIX having enjoyed a successful season. As a result of higher retained earnings, they are gearing up for the game with more money in their accounts. This could act as a tailwind for handle this Sunday.
It has been reiterated throughout this season, but it’s worth noting again: The percentage of favourites winning or covering the spread does not always have a direct correlation to hold rates.
That said, many operators have called out extremely operator friendly results across Q4. Flutter warned in January that FanDuel’s FY24 revenue will fall $370 million below the previously guided midpoint due to these results.
Super Bowl gross win to reach $116 million
Based on our assessment of around $1.60 billionn being legally wagered on the game in the US and hold rates across the year, H2 would expect the gross win generated from Sunday’s game to be in the range of c$116 million.
As we will discuss later, Nevada offers some insight into how hold rates can differ on the outcome of the game. The worst-case scenario for operators would be the favourite equalling the spread. This could see gross win drop as low as $75 million. But if the favourite were to beat the spread, gross win could reach $135 million based off historic Super Bowl results.
The teams
In a replay of Super Bowl LVII in 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles are set to face off against the Kansas City Chiefs, the favourites for Sunday’s game. The Eagles are appearing in their fifth Super Bowl in their history, following a convincing 55-24 win over the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game.
This game set a new record for the most amount of points scored in either an AFC or NFC Championship Game. The Eagles also broke the record for the most points scored by a team in a Championship Game. Philadelphia will be looking to win their second Super Bowl, and avenge their defeat to the Chiefs in 2023.
As for the Chiefs, this is their seventh Super Bowl, and an impressive fifth appearance in the last six years. Following victories in 2023 and 2024, the Chiefs have an opportunity to make history and become the first team to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy three years running.
The Chiefs reach Super Bowl LIX after narrowly beating the Buffalo Bills 32-29. This was, in fact, the first time all season that the Chiefs managed to score more than 30 points in a game – something the Eagles have managed to do seven times this season.
Eagles outscoring Chiefs over regular season
Despite not scoring above 30 points through the regular season, the Chiefs ended with a 15-2 record, their best ever regular season record. It includes a 38-0 loss to the Denver Broncos in week 18 as the Chiefs rested starters having secured the number one seed in the AFC.
The Eagles turned around a 2-2 start to finish with a 14-3 regular season record – matching their record from two years ago when they lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
In terms of points scored / conceded during the season, the Eagles are ahead, scoring 463 points compared to only 385 for the Chiefs. This trend continues when considering points conceded (Eagles 285 vs Chiefs 326).
It means the Eagles has a significant advantage in terms of a net positive 178 points over the regular season, compared to just 59 for the Chiefs. The Chiefs are unlikely to be concerned with this stat, given their record in close games. In fact, they have won their last 17 one-score games, an NFL record.
The game
The average number of points scored in the last 34 Super Bowls is 49.1, with the average winning margin coming in at 11.2. The Eagles have averaged 27.2 points per game in the regular season whereas the Chiefs have returned an average of 22.6. The Eagles scored 44.0 points per game on average, compared to 41.8 in Chiefs’ games.
This has led to the points over / under opening at 49.0. It’s significantly below the result of Super Bowl LXII where the two sides met in 2023, a match that had 73 points scored, the third highest in Super Bowl History (74 in Super Bowl VII & 75 in Super Bowl XXIX).
The average spread going into the past 34 Super Bowl games has been 6.22. At the time of writing, the Chiefs are slight favourites with a 1.5-point spread, considerably closer than average. In the previously mentioned Super Bowl LXII, the Eagles opened as 1.5-point favourites and will be hoping this matchup has the same outcome for the 1.5-point favourites.
The Eagles started off the season as with an implied chance of winning the Super Bowl of just 6.7%, compared to 15.4% for the Chiefs. These levels stayed relatively consistent until Week 13, when the Eagles managed to match the Chief’s chances of a Super Bowl.
By the end of the regular season the Chiefs were restored as favourites over the Eagles. However by the Divisional Championship round, the Eagles took over as favourites for the first time in the season. The odds have since swung back in the Chiefs’ favour after they overcame the Bills to reach the Super Bowl.
The benchmark
To preview the likely outcome for the sportsbooks this weekend, H2 has included our historical modelling of the Nevada sportsbooks Super Bowl record versus the results for the past 34 years. Over this period, the Nevada sportsbooks’ average Super Bowl hold is 7.3%, with the hold more favourable when favourites win.
Betting bigger than just the outcome
This demonstrates that fans aren’t just betting on the outcome of the game. They also enjoy betting on other markets, evidenced by the fact Nevada’s sportsbooks have posted an average 8.0% hold in the years favourites have won the Super Bowl. This drops to 6.3% when the underdog has come out on top.
Bettors tend to back favourites, meaning sportsbooks’ hold improves when underdogs win. This in turn would suggest operators have benefitted from the popularity of prop bets, which help to balance the books.
Favourites have won 61.8% of the Super Bowls since 1991, with 35.3% of the games seeing the favourite covering the spread. When the spread has been covered the average Nevada hold has been 8.4%.
The worst outcome for the sportsbooks is for the favourite to equal the spread. Though this has only happened twice in the past 34 years. In this scenario, the hold averages just 4.6%.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/sports-betting/h2gc-super-bowl-lix-sports-betting-handle/
