Macau expects big crowds for the national holiday, starting tomorrow. The celebration could draw record crowds, 70% of them from the mainland.
Chinese New Year (CNY) is prime time for travel by mainlanders, with the gaming mecca a popular destination. According to financial news site Seeking Alpha, as of last week more than 21 luxury hotels had already sold out for the early days of CNY.
Individual Visa Schemes (IVS), “fully relaxed and optimised” by the People’s Republic of China, are also boosting tourism. Last year, the central government added eight mainland cities to IVS rolls and, since 1 January, Zhuhai and Hengqin residents have been eligible to apply for multiple-entry visas to Macau. That policy could increase daily visitation from the cities by 20,000.
Home for the holiday
CNY is often called “the largest human migration on the planet”, as native Chinese and people of Chinese descent head home for the holiday. This year, RTHK News reports, travel could “hit record highs”, with 510 million arrivals by rail and 90 million by air.
For the national holiday, which continues through 4 February, the Macao Government Tourism Office expects up to 185,000 visitors per day.
Chinese president Xi Jinping is optimistic about Macau’s performance, despite “complex and severe situations” in recent months. To stoke the flagging economy, Beijing has trimmed interest rates and “pushed a basket of incremental policies to promote economic recovery”, said Xi.
Analysts differ on full-year returns
These indicators bode well for the Macau’s gaming industry, in the short and longer term. But analysts are divided about full-year returns in the Year of the Snake.
Last month, S&P Global warned that continuing economic turbulence could “impair Macau cash flow and (compromise) improvement”.
But the Macquarie team believes consensus forecasts of +6% growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025 are “too bearish”. Along with stimulus measures, they pointed to international roadshows designed to lure more overseas travellers to Macau.
“China values Macau and continues to endorse the destination,” the team wrote.
In a Macau Business roundup, Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research said GGR could grow by 7% “if the Chinese economy grows and consumer confidence levels improve”.
And CreditSights’ Nicholas Chen, by contrast, expects a modest increase of 4.7%, due to cautious consumer spending. “If the outlook for Chinese consumers is not good, they may tighten their belts (and) cut back on travel and spending,” Chen said.
For the year, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li expect moderate gains. “We model industry GGR growth of +4% for 1H25 versus +7% in 2H25 to produce +5% in FY25,” they said.
Meanwhile, the Macau government forecasts full-year GGR of MOP240 billion, up 11% over 2024.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/casino/integrated-resorts/macau-gears-up-for-strong-cny-longer-term-growth/
