Super Bowl LIX: Record projections, prediction markets and prop scrutiny

As of this writing, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favourites over the Eagles at most major books, with the exception of Caesars Sportsbook (-1). The line has held steady since it opened following the conference championships 26 January. Kansas City is almost universally -120 on the moneyline, with Philadelphia hovering around even (+100) up to +105 at Bet365.

The over/under for the game opened at 50.5 points, but books now vary between 49.5, 49 and 48.5. The fact that it has gone down is likely in response to the Eagles’ first-ranked defence. That said, Kansas City has scored at least 25 points in three of its four Super Bowl appearances since 2019. The only time it didn’t was 2021, when it lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9.

This is the second time these teams have met in the Super Bowl, with the first at the end of the 2022-23 season. In that matchup, it was the Eagles who were 1.5-point favourites, with a moneyline of -133. The total was also 50.5. Kansas City ultimately won the hard-fought game, 38-35, cashing both the underdog spread and the over.

Projections vary, but record is expected

The American Gaming Association (AGA) on Tuesday (4 February) announced its projection for betting handle: $1.39 billion (£1.1 billion/€1.3 billion). That figure, which would set a new record, only represents legal handle from licensed operators. In years past, the AGA had given one total projection on both the legal and illegal markets. In 2024 the combined estimate was $23.1 billion, and the 2023 combined estimate was $16 billion.

Analysts at Macquarie are going higher, projecting $1.7 billion in handle. They explained that the best-case outcome for bookmakers would be a Chiefs win and an under, which would result in a 22% hold. An Eagles victory coupled with the over would result in a hold of -4%, they said.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming lies in the middle of those two, projecting $1.5 billion. Analysts there said this year’s estimate is “around 20% higher” than last year’s. They also noted that the increase “is partially because we under-projected Super Bowl handle last year”.

Prediction markets active for first Super Bowl

Perhaps the biggest trend in the widening sports betting grey area has been the rise of prediction markets. This year’s game will be the first for the controversial event contracts exchanges such as Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood, which are currently legal under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) but face an uncertain future.

In the US elections in November, Kalshi took in more than $700 million in contracts just weeks after surviving legal challenges from the CFTC. Then in January it slowly began to expand into sports markets and on 3 February announced a partnership with Robinhood for Super Bowl contracts.

But on Tuesday (4 February), Robinhood reversed course and halted its contracts after a formal request from the CFTC. In its announcement, the company said it was “disappointed by this outcome, especially given that we had been in regular communication with the CFTC about our intent and plans to offer this product” and had been “generally championing the economic benefits of event contracts”. 

The AGA in a statement said it was “concerned” by the contracts, which “appear to circumvent state regulatory frameworks”. Despite Robinhood’s withdrawal, Kalshi still has its Super Bowl contract listed as of writing. Approximately $3 million has been traded on the market, with Kansas City a 53%-48% favourite.

It also features contracts for the NBA, NHL, Champion’s League and NCAA basketball championship winners.

Yield Sec: Illegal market figures to grow as well

If the regulated and grey markets are primed for Sunday, so too are black market operators. While the AGA declined to offer an estimate on illegal wagering this year, offshore analyst Yield Sec told iGB its projection, to be released on Friday (7 February), will also represent a new record for both the legal and illegal sectors.

Its analysis from last year was $5.37 billion in total handle, with $1.4 billion and $4 billion coming from the regulated and illegal markets, respectively. Yield Sec is also significantly increasing its illegal bet volume estimate – last year’s was 228.2 million bets.

This year the firm is highlighting the “exploitation of Taylor Swift” in reference to the singer’s high-profile relationship with Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce. Swift was also present for last year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Offshore books, it says, have again made her the theme of numerous prop bet markets.

Props could face increased scrutiny

Speaking of prop bets, the Super Bowl has long been the biggest game of the US sports calendar for the sector. This year, however, there is likely to be extra attention paid to player-prop bets given recent scandals. Former NBA player Jontay Porter last year was banned for life from the league for intentionally leaving games early to cash “under” bets on his performance. He currently awaits sentencing on 20 May for criminal charges related to the scheme.

Porter’s scandal has led to a wider investigation that now involves another NBA player, Terry Rozier. Rozier is currently being investigated for his performance in a game on 23 March 2023 against the New Orleans Pelicans. League monitor IC 360 flagged suspicious betting activity on Rozier’s props before the game. He then exited the contest early, citing foot soreness and sat for the remainder of the season.

For the Super Bowl, more casual fans often favour props involving the most famous players. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards total is set at 253.5 with a line of 1.5 touchdowns, while his favorite target Kelce has the highest line for receptions (6.5) and third-lowest odds for anytime touchdown (+125). Eagles All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley is the betting favourite for anytime touchdown (-195), first touchdown (+425) and last touchdown (+425).

Same-game parlays (SGPs), in which multiple wagers are placed on one contest, are also likely to dominate the prop landscape. The bets are now the backbone of modern bookmaking and have become popular among players. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, which features perhaps the most famous Super Bowl prop list, has dedicated several of its 50-page menu to SGPs.

Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/sports-betting/super-bowl-59-storylines/