Macau’s gaming sector could outperform market expectations in 2025, bolstered by continued policy support from Beijing and a stronger-than-expected rebound in gross gaming revenue (GGR), according to analysts at Macquarie.
The investment bank believes that consensus forecasts of +6% GGR growth for the year are “too bearish,” citing recent developments, including visa policy easing and renewed government endorsements of Macau as a key tourism and entertainment hub.
“China values Macau and continues to endorse the destination,” Macquarie analysts said in a note, highlighting the 2023 gaming concession renewals and recent pro-tourism measures.
Macquarie expects signs of outperformance to emerge as early as Chinese New Year Golden Week in February, a key travel period for Chinese tourists. The firm also projects strong EBITDA growth throughout the year, fueled by higher visitation levels and operational improvements among key gaming operators.
Macquarie singled out three U.S.-based Macau operators—Wynn Macau, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), and MGM—as well-positioned to capitalize on market tailwinds.
Wynn Macau is positioned for significant upside potential, as analysts believe expectations for the company’s 2025 performance are currently too low. This suggests there is room for positive surprises as the firm continues its operations and strategic developments in Macau.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Macau’s second-largest operator, is anticipated to have a turnaround year, driven by progress at its subsidiary Sands China. Renovations at The Londoner Macao and The Venetian Macao are nearing completion, with disruption at The Londoner peaking in the third quarter.
Analysts expect additional rooms to become available over the next three quarters, with Phase II of The Londoner scheduled for completion by Q2 2025. Meanwhile, MGM China continues to strengthen its foothold in the Macau market, supported by ongoing expansion projects that are expected to drive further growth.
Given the sector’s favorable policy environment and improving fundamentals, Macquarie recommends all three operators as “Outperform”, signaling confidence in their ability to deliver above-consensus results in 2025.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/01/24/92915-macquarie-sees-macau-gaming-outperforming-2025-growth-forecasts-amid-beijing-support
