U.S. Investment bank Jefferies has lowered its forecast for Macau’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 2% to MOP 240 billion ($30 billion), bringing it in line with the government’s outlook following weaker-than-expected revenue growth in the first two months of 2025.
The revision comes after January GGR reached MOP 18.25 billion ($2.28 billion), marking a marginal 0.29% increase from December 2024. In February, revenue rose to MOP 19.74 billion ($2.47 billion), up 6.8% month-on-month, benefiting from an extended post-holiday boost during the Chinese New Year period.
As January-February industry GGRs were flat, Jefferies sees limited near-term upside. However, the analysts still forecast 6.9% growth from March to December, outpacing the market estimate of 4.8%, they wrote in a note.
Despite the downward revision, Jefferies’ 2025 estimate remains 2% higher than market consensus. Looking further ahead, the firm projects:
• 2026 GGR: MOP 253 billion ($31.64 billion), a 5.4% increase
• 2027 GGR: MOP 266 billion ($33.26 billion), up 5.1%
Analysts expect Sands China and Galaxy to gain market share over the next two years, while MGM and Wynn stabilize. Visitor levels in 2025 are forecast to return to 94% of 2019 figures, favouring operators with large hotel capacity.
The investment bank maintains a “Buy” rating on most Macau casino operators, but assigns SJM Holdings a “Hold” rating, citing uncertainty in the satellite casino sector.
Macau’s gaming industry could benefit from new multi-entry permits for Zhuhai residents starting January 2025 and expanded group-tour permits that launched in May 2024, both of which are expected to boost mass gaming revenue and visitation.
Meanwhile, industry experts have raised concerns about the long-term trajectory of Macau’s casino sector. David Bonnet, a gaming industry consultant, cautioned that GGR growth may have peaked, citing China’s crackdown on junkets and illicit money exchanges, as well as Beijing’s focus on capital controls to curb financial outflows.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/03/11/97829-jefferies-cuts-2025-macau-ggr-forecast-to-30-billion-amid-slow-start-to-year
