Macau’s casino industry recorded a second consecutive month of year-on-year declines in January, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) falling 5.6% to MOP 18.25 billion ($2.27 billion), as seasonal factors weighed on performance, government data showed.
The drop follows a 2.0% decline in December 2024, marking the first back-to-back monthly contractions in over two years. The downturn was primarily attributed to the timing of the Lunar New Year, which began in late January and extends into early February.
The slowdown at the start of the holiday period impacted January’s figures, but Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Tai Kin Yip, remains optimistic about the city’s stable fundamentals.
Analysts had anticipated a softer decline due to pre-holiday momentum, but the industry underperformed expectations, raising concerns over Macau’s post-pandemic recovery trajectory.
Macau’s total gaming revenue for 2024 stood at MOP 226.78 billion ($28.2 billion), up 23.9% year-on-year, yet signs of slowing momentum emerged in the latter months of the year.
Stricter regulatory measures continue to reshape the industry, particularly for VIP gaming. New laws restricting junket operators—previously a major source of high-stakes gamblers—have shifted casino focus toward the mass-market and premium-mass segments. The Macau government has also enforced tighter financial oversight, limiting customer solicitation from mainland China.
Despite regulatory hurdles, Macau authorities forecast a full-year GGR of MOP 240 billion ($29.9 billion) for 2025, a 5.8% increase over 2024. Analysts remain divided on whether that target is achievable, given the decline in high-roller play and the broader economic environment in China.
The restructuring of Macau’s gaming landscape has seen the mass market account for over 77% of total casino revenue, while VIP gaming continues to decline.
Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that the eight-day Chinese New Year holiday is a key driver of sentiment among investors, although he noted that “the actual holiday is often mixed in terms of results, with the 2019 Chinese New Year accounting for only 2% of full-year GGR and 2024’s representing 2.7%.”
Seaport estimates that Macau’s casinos could generate MOP 800 million per day during the holiday period, amounting to MOP 6.4 billion ($796 million) for the eight-day span.
Analysts expect February’s gaming revenue to improve slightly, with a projected GGR of MOP 18.5 billion ($2.3 billion), representing a 0.1% year-on-year increase and a 1.3% rise from January. If forecasts hold, the combined January-February period would see a 2.8% decline from the previous year.
Key factors affecting Macau’s gaming industry in 2025 include:
- Continued pressure on VIP play, as high-roller activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
- The evolving regulatory environment, with potential for further financial oversight measures.
- Macau’s ability to attract tourists, particularly from mainland China, amid improved visa policies.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/02/04/93961-macau-gaming-revenue-falls-56-to-227-billion-in-january-on-seasonal-factors
